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Statistical downscaling

The coherent dynamical downscaling set-up of the High-Resolution (H-Res) simulations over Belgium, allows to create a Belgian micro-ensemble. Even though such ensemble gives a better estimate of the climate change signals, the ensemble is too small to cover the full uncertainty range. Also, due to the lack of CORDEX runs with high temporal frequency, it is very difficult in practice to couple the Local-Impact Models (LIMs) to all the model runs in the international CORDEX database. Therefore the dynamical regional climate simulations are extended to statistical downscaling techniques, which allows to transform low-resolution simulations such as the CMIP5 and EURO-CORDEX runs into H-Res runs. Hence, these statistical techniques will be applied in order to have a reliable uncertainty estimate of the H-Res projections.